Calloway Investments

by Francesca Levy
Friday, September 18, 2009
provided by www.forbes.com

*(STORY CONTINUED BELOW)

Where Home Prices Are Likely to Rise:

Charlotte, N.C.

Percentage Change:

1 Year, 2009: -8.15%

3 Year, 2009-2012: 3.54%

5 Year, 2009-2014: 12.20%
Boston, Ma.

Percentage Change:

1 Year, 2009: -9.75%

3 Year, 2009-2012: 4.48%

5 Year, 2009-2014: 20.44%

Baltimore, Md.

Percentage Change:

1 Year, 2009: -13.32%

3 Year, 2009-2012: -3.33%

5 Year, 2009-2014: 9.22%

Atlanta, Ga.

Percentage Change:

1 Year, 2009: -14.91%

3 Year, 2009-2012: 0.98%

5 Year, 2009-2014: 11.35%

Austin, Texas

Percentage Change:

1 Year, 2009: 0.29%

3 Year, 2009-2012: -1.54%

5 Year, 2009-2014: -1.01%
Though home prices in many areas still have room to drop, economists say some of the country’s real estate markets are showing early signs of repair. A two-year slide in values has eased its stomach-turning pace, and some analysts expect the national market to bottom out by mid 2010.

That’s the good news.

But just as subprime lending, the housing bubble and the country’s subsequent wave of foreclosures had distinct consequences in separate areas of the country, the recovery will also look dramatically different by region.

When prices do rise, they’ll inch, rather than soar, and some areas won’t match their pre-bubble prices for a decade, according to home price forecasts by Moody’s Economy.com.

In cities in Florida, such as Miami and Orlando, housing prices peaked late, leaving ample time for developers to go on a building bender. This has resulted in a bloated inventory. As a result, these areas may have a long wait before real estate costs level out. In Texas metros like Houston and Dallas, sustained economic health and less exposure to the 2004-2006 run-up in prices are expected to help homeowners there weather the bust better than most.
BEHIND THE NUMBERS:

Moody’s Economy.com provided Forbes with a housing price forecast for the country’s 40 largest metropolitan statistical areas (or metros)–geographic entities defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget for use in collecting statistics. The forecast predicts the percent change in home prices over one year, three years and five years, using data from the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. In the MSAs for which Case Schiller does not publish numbers, Moody’s used a weighted average of metropolitan divisions within those areas.

Moody’s calculates future changes in home price by measuring both long-term demographic and economic fundamentals, like income and population changes; and changes caused by short-term supply and demand shifts.

HOUSING SWINGS:

The data provider’s forecasters evaluated not only the relationship between such drivers in each metro, but the effect of overlying economic principles. Typically, prices will continue on the trajectory they are on, a trend that economists call persistence.

“When people see prices rising, they think housing is a good investment,” says Celia Chen, Moody’s Economy.com research staff senior director, specializing in housing economics. For some time afterward, these buyers will bite, helping to push prices even higher.

But, “sentiment can turn when prices are proceeding very quickly,” says Chen, referring to post-bust buyer reaction. “At some point people can think, ‘it’s not realistic, nothing is supporting this increase,’ and there’s a drop in demand for housing.”

Moody’s predicts a 16.08% decrease in prices nationwide by the end of the year. By 2012, however, prices will be 3.7% above 2009 levels, and by 2014 they will have nearly reverted to their pre-2009 state.

THE CRISIS IN THE COUNTRY’S METROS:

But nationwide data doesn’t tell the whole story. To understand the effects of the crisis one must examine thousands of micro-economies.

“This whole cycle didn’t play itself out uniformly across the country in magnitude or timing,” says Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida. “All housing markets are truly local. They’re a function of the structure of the local economy.”

Moody’s data show how prices will move relative to where they are now. Thus the depths to which prices have fallen in many metros means that what looks like a dramatic recovery may only reflect a prior correction that was just as severe.

In San Jose, for example, the five-year forecast calls for a 23.04% jump in prices. That sounds impressive until you note that at the one-year mark, prices will have fallen by more than that–25.14%.

But the numbers are useful for sketching out the potential shape of a recovery, and many experts agree with Moody’s outlook.

“Recent trends show a slowing of declining prices and the formation of a bottom,” says Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. But she stops short of heralding a new real estate boom. “The big picture here is that there’s no rebound. I think it is in fact far more likely that we will see an L-shaped outcome.”

COMPLETE STORY CAN BE READ AT:
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/107740/where-home-prices-are-likely-to-rise.html?mod=realestate-buy#top30

Commerce Department reports substantial increases in key home builder activity

News Release
July 17, 2009
HousingZone

WASHINGTON, July 17 - Nationwide housing starts and permits posted substantial gains in June as home builders responded to improved market conditions and the impending expiration of the first-time buyer tax credit, according to data released by the U.S. Commerce Department today. Commerce reported a 3.6 percent gain in overall housing starts to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 582,000 units and an 8.7 percent gain in permit issuance to 563,000 units. (more…)

3 story townhomes with garage and 3rd floor bonus room included

Tuesday, May 5, 2009, 10:15am EDT

Pending sales of existing homes rose for the second consecutive month in March, adding to optimism that the sluggish housing market may be poised for a recovery.

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index rose 3.2 percent last month, following a 2 percent increase in February.

 
It was the first back-to-back monthly increase in pending home sales in almost a year.

The index measures signed purchase contracts,but not actual closings. As a result, it is considered a forward-looking gauge of the housing market.

“This increase could be the leading edge of first-time buyers responding to very favorable affordability conditions, and an $8,000 tax credit, which increases buying power even more in areas where special programs allow buyers to use it as a downpayment,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

“We need several months of sustained growth to demonstrate a recovery in housing,” he adds.

The pending sales index rose 8.5 percent in the South, followed by a 5.7 percent increase in the Northeast.

Charlotte Business Journal

Story posted at:  http://charlotte.bizjournals.com/charlotte/stories/2009/05/04/daily14.html?ed=2009-05-05&ana=e_du_pub

Lauren Sherman, 03.30.09, 04:00 PM EST

U.S. migration may be down overall, but these vibrant metro areas are still attracting newcomers.

Unemployment is on the rise, credit is tight, and consumers aren’t spending–which means they aren’t picking up and moving much either. Very few places in America saw significant population growth in 2008.

But the buzzing metropolitan area of Denver bucked that trend. Its population increased by 2.17% in 2008. In 2007, it increased by 2.09%. In 2008, Denver was the 10th-fastest growing metro area in the U.S.

In Depth: 10 Cities Where Americans Are Relocating:

(more…)

The number of residential real estate closings in the Charlotte region grew 24 percent in March from February, according to the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association.

(more…)